The Retreat of the GOP

An elected official from the Northeast flying the GOP banner is a rare sight these days. The defeat of Republicans in the Northeast on Election Day, the Yankee Republicans, as are labeled in this AP report, has spurred commentary regarding the fate of the party in the area.

The defeat of those Republicans has worried some analysts, party supporters, and elected officials, including Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME), who said in the report that the defeat of those like Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) was a "serious reversal."



Is this the inevitable result of the direction that the national party took? Or was it simply the result of the Democratic wave having a greater impact on those Yankee Republicans?

The Yankee Republicans held positions such as keeping the federal spending in check, holding a balanced budget, which are positions held, at least in title, by national Republicans. However, the Yankee Republicans also were for environmental safeguards and held positions on social issues that were more liberal than their national Republican counterparts.

There are several causes for the decline of the Yankee Republicans.

First, the national party has been stressing party loyalty recently, especially to combat the possibility of moderates siding with the Democrats on key votes. The national party's platform is under the control of the more socially conservative Republicans, leaving Yankee Republicans between a rock (or Iraq in Chafee's case) and a hard place. Without "loyalty," support from the national party drops. That situation that the Yankee Republicans find themselves in so often on Capitol Hill is a large cause for the decline of the faction.

Second, which is tied to the first, is that there is little effort at building the party in the Northeast. And why would they? The candidates that would come up would likely be of the Yankee Republican mold after all. And if they recruited candidates that were more in line with the national Republicans, the chances of their success dwindle. Further, if the other state GOP machines did as little as the New York Republican leaders have done building the state party, then it would account for a good portion of the retreat from the Northeast.

Third, the tenuous hold that the Yankee Republicans had in their offices was shattered in the Democratic wave. When voters are looking for a change in leadership, and Yankee Republicans supported the recent congressional leadership. On Election Day, if voters are looking for a change at the top of Capitol Hill, party labeling becomes more important than whether the views of the Yankee Republican up for election are closer to the views of the electorate than not. As such, many of those Yankee Republicans were ousted on Election Day.

Lastly, Democrats have turned to campaigning on a fiscally responsible, more socially liberal, and environmentally strong platforms. The Democrats have spent quite a while trying to get that message out, especially in light of the Republican Congress that has ruled Capitol Hill for the last several years. In doing so, the Democrats have taken space on those platforms away from the Yankee Republicans. And the voters are responding. If a Democrat and a Yankee Republican are closer on issues like these than not, why would those voters support the national Republican leadership by giving their votes to the Yankee Republican?

These causes are all built on one another and the end result is the scattering of the Yankee Republican faction. It is not and will not be extinct, but its potency has been removed.

What will it take for the Yankee Republicans to regain their former territory? It will definitely take a Republican leadership that is more tolerant of the faction's standing within the greater Republican fold.

Or, for a more far-fetched scenario, they can simply become Democrats and join the ranks of Democrats that would be in line with the Yankee Republicans. And for an even more far-fetched scenario, those Yankee Republicans could become a cornerstone for the Northeast portion of a greater Centrist Party.

It looks like the Yankee Republicans are going to be in the political wilderness for at least a little while. It might be the Republican version of the scattering of the Dixiecrats. Regardless of comparisons, the defeat of the Yankee Republicans may just be a sign of the partisan wars dominating national politics right now. If the newly-elected Democrats follow through on their plans for bipartisan governing, then they may have lost a good portion of the Republicans that would work with them more often than not.

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The New Front at Capitol Hill

So the Democrats won the Battle of Stirling. What now?

It's very likely that the war at the Capitol will rage onwards after a brief truce. With only a meager two years before the next Battle of the Ballots, will the Democrats go ahead and win their Battle of Falkirk as well?

As much as the election proved that the people of this country were tired of the way the Republican congressional leadership ran the nation, it does not mean that the Democrats can look forward to enjoying rule over Capitol Hill for at least as long as the Republicans enjoyed their rule.

The slate of Democrats that won key races included candidiates that were not cut from the usual Democratic cloth. Although the public is clamoring for resolutions to issues such as the Iraq war and the corruption problems that afflicted the outgoing Republican majority, there are other issues important to the people that have been left unaddressed by the departing 109th Congress. The promises that the Democrats have made must be kept. All of America is watching.

The Democrats have promised to raise the federal minimum wage. As soon as the 110th Congress is in session, the Democrats must pass this bill. The opinion of the American people has been made clear on this issue. Minimum wage raises were approved in several states on Election Day and now over half of the nation's states have minimum wages higher than the $5.15 federal minimum.

The Democrats have also promised to cut the interest rate on student loans. It is critical that this is passed.

With the cost of college already rising at exceedingly high rates due to tuition hikes that far outpace the rate of inflation, why penalize the middle and lower classes further for wanting to get ahead? Republicans have complained that although the economy is growing at a steady pace, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is rising through the roof, and unemployment rates are below average, many people across the country do not have a sunny outlook on the economy. This double whammy that makes college much more expensive is but one reason that many Americans are not feeling so well on the economy.

The Democrats must also be willing to work with the Republicans. An important appointment up for confirmation will be coming while the 109th Congress conducts its lame duck session before becoming a product of history. Former CIA Director Robert Gates is up to be confirmed to the post of Secretary of Defense. After years of clamoring for Donald Rumsfeld's ouster, the Democrats finally have their wish, with the added bonus of it not happening during the year's election season, when it could have swayed some voters to vote Republican.

Gates needs to have a confirmation hearing where Democrats offer tough questions and allow Gates to clearly state how he wants to execute the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Democrats should also let it be known that they will involve themselves in the process, providing the political backing needed for new plans for these wars, especially for Iraq. After that, it would be wise to confirm Gates as the new Defense Secretary. It would not only show that the Democrats can work with the Bush Administration, but that it will be deeply involved in the direction that hopefully charts our involvement in Iraq towards a better conclusion than the current "stay the course" plan is working now. If there ever comes a time when the United States needs to withdraw some, most, or all of its soldiers in Iraq if there is no way that an effective Iraqi government can take hold of the country, then the Democrats must be willing to work with the Administration and the Pentagon to ensure that the United States leaves on the best possible terms.

There is no doubt that the public expects the new Democratic Congress to stand up to the President and his Administration. However, fighting for the sake of fighting and grandstanding will not play well with the public and will endanger the Democratic hold on Congress in only two years' time. As the Battle of Falkirk approaches and politicians are looking to 2008, the Democrats need to show that they can govern and not simply bicker.

The American people are trusting them to take the country in a new direction, a direction different from that offered by the Republican leadership in both the White House and on Capitol Hill. The Democrats can only help themselves by fighting strategtically on important issues and governing and reaching out the rest of the time. The Democrats can use this approach of moderate government while fighting the good fights when they need to be fought to improve their chances in 2008, regardless of the direction the Republican Party takes after its upcoming leadership fight.

Whether the Republicans choose to work with the Democrats or fight them every inch of the way, the Democrats can win their Battle of Falkirk by showing Americans that their trust and their hopes were not misplaced.

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Santorum Already a Casualty, Projections Report

Stick a fork in Rick Santorum, projects MSNBC, which has been my network of choice thus far tonight. Even if the Republicans retain control of the Senate (and they will need only 50 seats, given the Vice Presidential tiebreaker), the loss of their third-in-command is a definite blow to the Republican leadership.

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Election Day 2006: Finally, All Those Attack Ads are Paying Off!

With the first polls already closing (it's only 7 PM, what gives?), candidiates across the country are awaiting the results of this year's election. Although there is a profound lack of competitive races citywide and statewide (close congressional and state legislature races aside), politicians have been on the move campaigning for political allies and pushing themselves in considerations of future races. Even with the lack of competitive races, there is one statewide race that is providing fireworks and fixes for political junkies across the state: the campaign for Comptroller.

This race was one the quietest among the statewide campaigns this year. Alan Hevesi, the incumbent Democrat, was quietly cruising to a second term and his Republican challenger, Christopher Callaghan, was launching a futile campaign with next to zero attention from the press.

Alas, it was found that Hevesi took the word "cruising" a little too literally as everyone learned that he used state employees and state vehicles to drive his ailing wife. Hevesi, certainly no man that is struggling financially, reimbursed approximately $83,000 to the state.

Callaghan pounced on this revelation, though he broke this story only with information from an anonymous source and at the time, he did not know whether this allegation was true. Perhaps this is excuseable given that he was trailing Hevesi by 30 points. Still, quickly throwing around the mud is not an admirable trait, even in campaigns such as these.

Nevertheless, late in October, many newspaper editorial boards threw their endorsements behind Callaghan, including the New York Times. Still, it seems that the chances of a Hevesi victory were better than even.

However, Hevesi was found to owe $90,000 more to the state, in addition to the money already paid. Not only did Hevesi make a serious lapse in judgment by raiding the cookie jar he was supposed to protect, but he tried to quiet the story by making a payment, but not the full amount.

Callaghan may not have the credentials needed for this office. However, he is the best hope for ousting Hevesi. Hevesi has been on the offensive down the final stretch, launching attack ads against Callaghan and promoting himself as the race quickly tightened and Hevesi's re-election is far from assured.

Additionally, Hevesi ran an ad apologizing to New York voters and said that if they trust him with their votes, he will only be beholden to them and to no other interests. Such talk leads to the conclusion that Hevesi will proclaim a mandate and forgiveness from the voters should he be re-elected and thus will not resign his post. Therefore, hopefully, the voters of New York State made that decision for him and have decided to throw him out.

My support, although it called for a little bit of nose-holding, was for the Republican, Chris Callaghan.


Governor:

No contest here. Eliot Spitzer will defeat John Faso by a landslide. My vote has been for Eliot Spitzer on the hope that (perhaps naively), a greater mandate will allow Spitzer to tell Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno to shove off on "Day One," as his campaign has said since Day One. We are trusting you with our votes, Eliot. Let's hope that "everything changes on Day One."


US Senate:

Again, no contest here. Hillary Clinton will retain her seat and John Spencer will complain to his mirror tomorrow morning. Whatever aspirations she holds for President were not considered in this election and supporting her increases the chances of better representation for New York in the Senate. That and John Spencer's comments, his latest blunder was his shooting his mouth off about Clinton's appearance, were certainly no help to his cause. After a brutal primary to be the Republican nominee, Spencer killed any chances of rallying Clinton opponents behind his banner. Although that by itself would not win election, it appears that Spencer has failed to do even that.


Attorney General:

Jeanine Pirro provided Exhibit A in how NOT to run a campaign. After screwing up her candidacy for the Senate (even though she would have done much better than Spencer), she decided to go for the consolation prize, the office which she claims she is naturally suited for due to her career, Attorney General. Marital scandals later showed that she might not be the one to be the chief prosecutor of the state, as she came under investigation for possibly violating the law in asking that champion of ethics Bernard Kerik to eavesdrop on her husband and find out if he was cheating on her...again.

Andrew Cuomo also is going for the consolation prize after aborting his gubernatorial campaign too late in 2002 and allowed George Pataki to coast to his third term. His career raises serious doubts that he has the experience or expertise necessary to be Attorney General, especially for filling Spitzer's big shoes.

Since neither candidiate really wanted this office, they must not have really wanted my vote for this office. I chose neither.


House of Representatives: New York's 9th Congressional District:

This election brought me the wonderful choice as voting for Anthony Weiner on the Democratic line or voting for Anthony Weiner on the Working Families line. Shoving comparisons to Saddam Hussein winning 99.9% of the vote in Iraq aside and thinking Weiner is a better-than-average Congressman, I voted for Weiner on the Democratic line.

(Watch, if Weiner runs for Mayor again in 2009, someone will dig up this entry as a legitimate comparison of Weiner to Hussein. I can see the attack ad already.)


Judges:

Hoping that more information about the candidiates would be availiable to the voters next time around and strategically voting on the basis of party control, these votes were for Democrats down the line.


State Legislature:

Both Carl Kruger (27th Senate district) and Helene Weinstein (41st Assembly District) have proved rather underwhelming, not to mention the horribly outdated websites for them in this Internet age (and since I'm not an elected official, I can get away with not having anything in over a month, much less several, like the office websites of both representatives) and with both seats not in danger of reverting to Republican control (though I would not care so much in the Assembly, where Democrats hold an overwhelming advantage), I voted for none of the above.


Races on the Radar Screen


New York's 13th Congressional District:

Abandoned by the party and running a shoestring campaign, it is amazing how far Steve Harrison has come. One would think that given the not-insurmountable margin of victory that Vito Fossella delivered in 2004 that the Democratic Party would target this district with funds. Alas, that is not the case. Still, hopefully Harrison manages to pull it out and send the "Independent Fighter," that is about as independent as Tibet is from China, back home.


Pennsylvania Senate:

It looks like Rick Santorum will be shown the door. However, the campaign by both Santorum and Democrat Bob Casey Jr. left a bitter taste in many mouths. If it weren't so critical and if I lived in Pennsylvania, I'd be tempted to send my vote elsewhere.


Montana Senate:



What does it mean that corrupt Conrad Burns still has a shot to win this race? It can't be that Montana is so Republican; after all, Burns is only the second Republican Senator from Montana in its history. But Burns does have a fair amount of seniority in the Senate. However, with him being the largest recipient of Jack Abramoff's Dirty Money, he has to go. Jon Tester is the solution here and hopefully enough Montanans see that fact.


On a final note, why are there polls starting to close as early as 7 PM Eastern Time? Although it looks like there will be very high turnout for an off-year election, the fact that the polls close so early is not helping. With someone living in the suburbs or even a reverse commuter in the New York City area, it can be easy to not be able to vote by the time the polls close, even though the polls close here at 9 PM. It will take some greater resources, but why not hold the polls open for the 24 hours of Election Day? Perhaps the TV commentators will come to my door to kick my ass for suggesting this, since it means someone will have to be awake to cover the election in the very early morning, but it certainly could not really hurt to leave them open longer. Or if not 24 hours, then at least push back the closing time by a couple of hours or even to midnight.

Just a thought.

And now, the results are already pouring in. Let's see how the people voted. I am pulling for a Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress. It's not like Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi will have that much power with the gridlock that will take place!

With the problems that have blown up in the Republicans' face, especially considering the ethics issues plaguing their leadership, it would be hard to say the Republicans didn't deserve a loss this time around. Does that mean the Democrats deserved to win? Not necessarily, but if they do win control, we will find out if they deserved it and if not, 2008 is just a hop, skip, and a jump away.

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