A Perfect Plan for 2010?
The conventional wisdom states that Lieutenant Governor, and, on Monday, New York Governor David Paterson was betting on a Hillary Clinton administration starting in 2009, thus paving the way for Eliot Spitzer to appoint him to the vacancy in the United States Senate.
Although the chances of Mrs. Clinton becoming President, or Vice President, are falling, the timing for Paterson seems to favor him. The current gubernatorial term, which Paterson will serve, will end in 2010. So will the current term for New York's senior Senator, Chuck Schumer. These two men could simultaneously campaign for the other's job.
Of course, there are things that have the potential to derail this plan. These two men do not exist in a bubble and the ambitions of others cannot be ignored. Suppose that Andrew Cuomo would want another opportunity to become Governor in 2010. Or that Tom Suozzi would like to take another shot at the top. Suppose that Michael Bloomberg would like to continue his public life after all. Or that the GOP could recruit a candidate much better than the sacrificial lambs they offered in 2006 (no offense to long shots like Chris Callaghan that truly fought for the offices they sought). Suppose that members of New York's congressional delegation would like a promotion to the Senate.
The potential pitfalls to this switch are many. There is a chance that each man may want to continue in his current job. This could be especially true for Schumer, who has become a big man in the Senate with the opportunity to be included in a potentially larger Democratic caucus after the 2008 elections. But it isn't as if running for Governor would be an idea out of left field for him.
However, both Schumer and Paterson could find themselves in very strong positions by the 2010 campaign. Schumber is very popular in New York. His smashing of Howard Mills in the 2004 Senate race shows it clearly. Paterson could boost his own stock if he performs well as Governor for the next two-plus years. His first tests come quickly as the state budget is due on April 1st and state approval for New York City's congestion pricing plan is needed this month in order to receive federal aid for the program. If he can handle Senate Majority Leader (and to-be-Acting Lt. Gov.) Joe Bruno (R) and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D), his stock can only rise. His gains for the Democratic minority in the State Senate during his tenure as Minority Leader show promise that he can handle Bruno as Governor. If he backs a strong Democratic campaign that yields the party control of the Senate, for the first time in decades, he can boost his cause even more.
There is no reason why this plan would not have a good shot of succeeding, as things stand now. Both Schumer and Paterson have the skills to make it happen. They can certainly raise the funds to campaign, especially if they work together for 2010. And this switcheroo would be much better than another repeat of Al Vann and Annette Robinson swapping seats between the City Council and the State Assembly to get around the term limits on Council members. Schumer and Paterson could benefit immensely. If they are committed to fixing Albany, New Yorkers may benefit as well.
Of course, there is still plenty of time to see what will happen and how these men do. After all, two years ago, "Mr. Clean" was on his way to his coronation as Governor on the promise of fixing Albany starting from Day One. Since then, we've learned quite a lot, haven't we?
Although the chances of Mrs. Clinton becoming President, or Vice President, are falling, the timing for Paterson seems to favor him. The current gubernatorial term, which Paterson will serve, will end in 2010. So will the current term for New York's senior Senator, Chuck Schumer. These two men could simultaneously campaign for the other's job.
Of course, there are things that have the potential to derail this plan. These two men do not exist in a bubble and the ambitions of others cannot be ignored. Suppose that Andrew Cuomo would want another opportunity to become Governor in 2010. Or that Tom Suozzi would like to take another shot at the top. Suppose that Michael Bloomberg would like to continue his public life after all. Or that the GOP could recruit a candidate much better than the sacrificial lambs they offered in 2006 (no offense to long shots like Chris Callaghan that truly fought for the offices they sought). Suppose that members of New York's congressional delegation would like a promotion to the Senate.
The potential pitfalls to this switch are many. There is a chance that each man may want to continue in his current job. This could be especially true for Schumer, who has become a big man in the Senate with the opportunity to be included in a potentially larger Democratic caucus after the 2008 elections. But it isn't as if running for Governor would be an idea out of left field for him.
However, both Schumer and Paterson could find themselves in very strong positions by the 2010 campaign. Schumber is very popular in New York. His smashing of Howard Mills in the 2004 Senate race shows it clearly. Paterson could boost his own stock if he performs well as Governor for the next two-plus years. His first tests come quickly as the state budget is due on April 1st and state approval for New York City's congestion pricing plan is needed this month in order to receive federal aid for the program. If he can handle Senate Majority Leader (and to-be-Acting Lt. Gov.) Joe Bruno (R) and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D), his stock can only rise. His gains for the Democratic minority in the State Senate during his tenure as Minority Leader show promise that he can handle Bruno as Governor. If he backs a strong Democratic campaign that yields the party control of the Senate, for the first time in decades, he can boost his cause even more.
There is no reason why this plan would not have a good shot of succeeding, as things stand now. Both Schumer and Paterson have the skills to make it happen. They can certainly raise the funds to campaign, especially if they work together for 2010. And this switcheroo would be much better than another repeat of Al Vann and Annette Robinson swapping seats between the City Council and the State Assembly to get around the term limits on Council members. Schumer and Paterson could benefit immensely. If they are committed to fixing Albany, New Yorkers may benefit as well.
Of course, there is still plenty of time to see what will happen and how these men do. After all, two years ago, "Mr. Clean" was on his way to his coronation as Governor on the promise of fixing Albany starting from Day One. Since then, we've learned quite a lot, haven't we?
posted by Will at 7:33 PM
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