On the Eve of the Election
"If you will be my smooth stones, I will be your slingshot.
If you will be my smooth stones, I will be your David.
If you will be my smooth stones, I will be your Mayor!"
-Ferrer's stump speech shown at the end of a special weekend edition of "Road to City Hall" on NY1 television shown Sunday night.
Beware of landslide.
How fitting it was that Ferrer would talk of stones. But they will not be projectiles at Bloomberg and his campaign. But rather, they will come to crush Ferrer tomorrow on Election Day.
Two fresh polls from last week have shown Ferrer's support down to a hardcore base.
The New York Post reporting a WNBC/Marist poll giving the mayor a 34-point lead over Ferrer.
Marist shows that Bloomberg gained four points by November 4th since November 1st, from 62-31 to 64-30.
Meanwhile, a Newsday/NY1 poll reported Bloomberg leading by 32 points, 60-28.
The major event that occurred in the time frame of these polls was the second actual mayoral debate on Tuesday night. Finally, a debate at a time when people could tune in. Unfortunately, it was Tuesday night...and I did have a Marketing class that evening. But, I will not trash the debate for its time, as it was scheduled at a reasonable time for most voters.
Ferrer was better in the second debate than in the first. In fact, reading over the transcript (Gotham Gazette) and reading various summaries and soundbites in the day after the debate, I'd even give a win to Ferrer for the debate. However, Ferrer did not win handily. And that was all that was needed to allow Bloomberg to maintain (and even increase) his lead. Especially given that Ferrer's advertisements have hardly been found on the airwaves in the past couple of weeks, it is not surprising that a lack of a knockout punch would even narrow the gap by one point, let alone 30.
And NYC is for Bloomberg.
The final tally may very well be closer than this. There are still a few undecideds out there, even if they are hard to come by (Marist reports 3% undecided with 3% supporting Tom Ognibene on the Conservative ticket) and there may be a few supporters from Bloomberg breaking to the Democrat line, especially if they will vote Democrat down the line everywhere else. It may be quite tempting to pull the lever for a straight-ticket vote. Even with that however, Bloomberg will likely win by a larger margin than Rudy Giuliani defeated Democrat Ruth Messinger in 1997.
We will find out for sure tomorrow night.
If you will be my smooth stones, I will be your David.
If you will be my smooth stones, I will be your Mayor!"
-Ferrer's stump speech shown at the end of a special weekend edition of "Road to City Hall" on NY1 television shown Sunday night.
Beware of landslide.
How fitting it was that Ferrer would talk of stones. But they will not be projectiles at Bloomberg and his campaign. But rather, they will come to crush Ferrer tomorrow on Election Day.
Two fresh polls from last week have shown Ferrer's support down to a hardcore base.
The New York Post reporting a WNBC/Marist poll giving the mayor a 34-point lead over Ferrer.
Marist shows that Bloomberg gained four points by November 4th since November 1st, from 62-31 to 64-30.
Meanwhile, a Newsday/NY1 poll reported Bloomberg leading by 32 points, 60-28.
The major event that occurred in the time frame of these polls was the second actual mayoral debate on Tuesday night. Finally, a debate at a time when people could tune in. Unfortunately, it was Tuesday night...and I did have a Marketing class that evening. But, I will not trash the debate for its time, as it was scheduled at a reasonable time for most voters.
Ferrer was better in the second debate than in the first. In fact, reading over the transcript (Gotham Gazette) and reading various summaries and soundbites in the day after the debate, I'd even give a win to Ferrer for the debate. However, Ferrer did not win handily. And that was all that was needed to allow Bloomberg to maintain (and even increase) his lead. Especially given that Ferrer's advertisements have hardly been found on the airwaves in the past couple of weeks, it is not surprising that a lack of a knockout punch would even narrow the gap by one point, let alone 30.
And NYC is for Bloomberg.
The final tally may very well be closer than this. There are still a few undecideds out there, even if they are hard to come by (Marist reports 3% undecided with 3% supporting Tom Ognibene on the Conservative ticket) and there may be a few supporters from Bloomberg breaking to the Democrat line, especially if they will vote Democrat down the line everywhere else. It may be quite tempting to pull the lever for a straight-ticket vote. Even with that however, Bloomberg will likely win by a larger margin than Rudy Giuliani defeated Democrat Ruth Messinger in 1997.
We will find out for sure tomorrow night.
posted by Will at 6:27 AM
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