Big Easy Disaster: The Sequel?
NOTE: I started typing this early Tuesday afternoon, before I had heard that Rita had already become a Category 2 hurricane. With that said, my suspicion of it becoming another severe hurricane is even stronger. And it will still soak up energy from the Gulf while it makes its way across the water.
So here we are again. This time the name is Rita and even at this stage of the life of the hurricane, many people are worried about its possible power. Although Rita was merely a tropical storm as of last night (Eastern Time), the path that the storm was expected to take would have minimal contact with land, passing over the Florida Keys and grazing the northwestern coasts of Cuba before heading into the same warm waters that make Katrina the behemoth we witnessed three weeks ago. This means that Rita will probably be in the same position Katrina was before slamming into New Orleans: sitting in the Gulf of Mexico gaining strength while putting a possible bull's-eye anywhere along the Gulf Coast.
Two things are different about this situation, however. First, forecasters are predicting this storm to reach only to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, though I have the suspicion that it could make it to 4 or even a stronger 4, borderline 5 given the second point. That second point is that the forecasters are also saying the storm will still be in the Gulf come Friday (allowing it more time to strengthen) and that we've already had Katrina, so the actions taken should be much better than the endless string of SNAFUs that plagued the Katrina rescue and recovery effort. If you were to include today (Tuesday), that would mean there would be four days to prepare for the storm, assuming it makes a landfall on Saturday.
Although I am hopeful that we have learned some things from the Katrina debacle, I am not holding my breath that everything will go well. Already, there's been miscommunication and bad advice given. Recently, the mayor of New Orleans, Ray Nagin, had said he wanted to see some residents return to the city. How they would return was something the mayor probably hadn't given much thought.
First off, those that couldn't get out due to their financial situation likely won't have the means to return from wherever they ended up once they were taken out of the city (if they were taken out). Even those who had the means to leave before the storm likely won't have the means to return, it's been three weeks and they've had no job that would give a paycheck.
Second, the flood that covered most of the city after the levee breaches had been contaminated with all sorts of deadly bacteria and chemicals, many of it coming from leaks in nearby chemical plants and with the conditions perfect, the bacteria have multiplied beyond anything considered safe and have found their way into foundations of homes, cracks in the walls, and all sorts of hard to reach yet potentially harmful places.
Third, even if that had not been the case, how were the residents supposed to live in their homes? Most, if not all of the city, still has no electricity. That means no refrigeration. If they could even find a store with food left there, it'd be spoiled by now unless they were lucky enough to find non-perishable food. Now, how will all the people returning to the city be so lucky? Even for the president's speech from the city, generators and lights had to be brought in to make the president look good and also not have a speech that had no working microphones and was in the pitch black night.
Last, there was a very real possibility of another tropical storm hitting the New Orleans area again (and Rita, even though it's far out at the moment, still has a chance of hitting that area). Even if it wasn't a direct hit, a storm could further damaged the weakened levee, especially in the places where it already collapsed and has only the most basic stopgaps in there now (such as giant sandbags). Is Nagin, the Mayor of New Orleans, about to lead people into yet another flood?
Thankfully, Nagin finally agreed with everyone else and has told people not to return to the city. Although this may have been merely to save face for a political career that is likely destroyed, I'll be a nice guy and give him credit for this. The problem with his decision to tell everyone who fled the city to stay outside was that he made no mention of the dangerous situation inside the city, but rather that Rita was coming. Well...yes...but even if there were no Rita, the city would still be unsafe. Shame on the Mayor of New Orleans. A mayor should be looking out for his citizens, whether they are in the city or have left because of an emergency or disaster, not merely to get things "back to normal" as soon as possible in order to bask in the glory of such a quick recovery. Such haste often ends up doing more harm than good.
So here we are again. This time the name is Rita and even at this stage of the life of the hurricane, many people are worried about its possible power. Although Rita was merely a tropical storm as of last night (Eastern Time), the path that the storm was expected to take would have minimal contact with land, passing over the Florida Keys and grazing the northwestern coasts of Cuba before heading into the same warm waters that make Katrina the behemoth we witnessed three weeks ago. This means that Rita will probably be in the same position Katrina was before slamming into New Orleans: sitting in the Gulf of Mexico gaining strength while putting a possible bull's-eye anywhere along the Gulf Coast.
Two things are different about this situation, however. First, forecasters are predicting this storm to reach only to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, though I have the suspicion that it could make it to 4 or even a stronger 4, borderline 5 given the second point. That second point is that the forecasters are also saying the storm will still be in the Gulf come Friday (allowing it more time to strengthen) and that we've already had Katrina, so the actions taken should be much better than the endless string of SNAFUs that plagued the Katrina rescue and recovery effort. If you were to include today (Tuesday), that would mean there would be four days to prepare for the storm, assuming it makes a landfall on Saturday.
Although I am hopeful that we have learned some things from the Katrina debacle, I am not holding my breath that everything will go well. Already, there's been miscommunication and bad advice given. Recently, the mayor of New Orleans, Ray Nagin, had said he wanted to see some residents return to the city. How they would return was something the mayor probably hadn't given much thought.
First off, those that couldn't get out due to their financial situation likely won't have the means to return from wherever they ended up once they were taken out of the city (if they were taken out). Even those who had the means to leave before the storm likely won't have the means to return, it's been three weeks and they've had no job that would give a paycheck.
Second, the flood that covered most of the city after the levee breaches had been contaminated with all sorts of deadly bacteria and chemicals, many of it coming from leaks in nearby chemical plants and with the conditions perfect, the bacteria have multiplied beyond anything considered safe and have found their way into foundations of homes, cracks in the walls, and all sorts of hard to reach yet potentially harmful places.
Third, even if that had not been the case, how were the residents supposed to live in their homes? Most, if not all of the city, still has no electricity. That means no refrigeration. If they could even find a store with food left there, it'd be spoiled by now unless they were lucky enough to find non-perishable food. Now, how will all the people returning to the city be so lucky? Even for the president's speech from the city, generators and lights had to be brought in to make the president look good and also not have a speech that had no working microphones and was in the pitch black night.
Last, there was a very real possibility of another tropical storm hitting the New Orleans area again (and Rita, even though it's far out at the moment, still has a chance of hitting that area). Even if it wasn't a direct hit, a storm could further damaged the weakened levee, especially in the places where it already collapsed and has only the most basic stopgaps in there now (such as giant sandbags). Is Nagin, the Mayor of New Orleans, about to lead people into yet another flood?
Thankfully, Nagin finally agreed with everyone else and has told people not to return to the city. Although this may have been merely to save face for a political career that is likely destroyed, I'll be a nice guy and give him credit for this. The problem with his decision to tell everyone who fled the city to stay outside was that he made no mention of the dangerous situation inside the city, but rather that Rita was coming. Well...yes...but even if there were no Rita, the city would still be unsafe. Shame on the Mayor of New Orleans. A mayor should be looking out for his citizens, whether they are in the city or have left because of an emergency or disaster, not merely to get things "back to normal" as soon as possible in order to bask in the glory of such a quick recovery. Such haste often ends up doing more harm than good.
posted by Will at 1:15 AM
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